U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, 19th January 2023, after data showed a tight labor market reignited concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive path of interest rate hikes, which could lead the economy into recession.
A Labor Department report showed that initial jobless claims last week were lower than expected, indicating that the job market remains strong despite the Fed’s efforts to curb labor demand.
Expectations that the Fed will further slow the pace of interest rate hikes at next month’s policy meeting were not changed by the data.
Investors have been looking for signs of labor market weakness, a key factor needed for the Fed to begin slowing the pace of its policy tightening.
Other data showed that manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region was subdued again in January, while data from the Commerce Department confirmed that the housing market recession continues.
Recent comments from Fed officials continue to highlight the disconnect between the Fed’s view of the terminal rate and market expectations.
Boston Fed President Collins supported raising rates above 5%, echoing comments made by other policymakers.
However, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard said the Fed is “exploring” the right level of interest rates that can control inflation while not damaging employment.
However, the market believes that the terminal rate of 4.89% will be touched in June, and largely digested the possibility that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in February and cut rates in the second half of this year.
With this, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both fell for the third consecutive session, the longest decline in a month.
(Dow 30, 1-hour chart)
The Dow pays attention to the 33233-line today. If the Dow runs stably above the 33233-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the 33390 and 33584 positions.
Hong Kong Stocks
The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks closed up collectively at noon.
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) was up 1%, the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH) was up 1.59%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) was up 1.47%.
The market turnover was HK$43.2 billion.
On the market, large technology stocks rose collectively, Baidu, Inc. (9888.HK), Meituan (3690.HK) rose 4%, Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (9988.HK) rose 2%, JD.com, Inc. (9618.HK), and Tencent Holdings Limited (0700.HK) rose 1%.
Resource stocks are active: Among them, institutions predict that global oil demand will increase sharply in 2023, and three barrels of oil will rise together. Spot gold will strengthen again and hit a nine-month high, and gold stocks will generally rise. Coal stocks will collectively rise, and Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668.HK) will rise by more than 4%.
In addition, with the Chinese New Year is approaching, consumer stocks are strong: Macau New Year hotel bookings are full, gaming stocks are strong; holiday concept stocks, tourism stocks and other stocks rose.
The three major communication operators collectively strengthened; China Telecom Hong Kong shares hit a new high of nearly 8 years.
In addition, yesterday’s strong Hong Kong local consumer stocks, biotechnology stocks retreated; auto stocks, shipping and port stocks and other stocks weakened.
(HK50, 1-hour chart)
HK50 pays attention to the 21450-line today. If HK50 can run stably above the 21450-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength at the two positions of 22127 and 22785.
FTSE China A50 Index
(FTSE China A50, 1-hour chart)
FTSE China A50 pays attention to the 13887-line today. If A50 runs stably below the 13887-line, it will pay attention to the support strength of the 13653 and 13320 positions. If the A50 runs above the 13887-line, it will open up further upside space.
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