1. Forex Market Insight
The dollar fell across the board Thursday, 9th February 2023, and the euro climbed 0.2% against the greenback to $1.0733.
The dollar weakened on Thursday mainly because data for the day showed that initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims of 190,000 for the latest week.
The higher-than-expected jobless claims data has led the market to insist that the Fed will not raise interest rates more than needed as inflation has begun to get under control. But before next week’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, investors are still hesitant to go back to shorting the dollar.
Therefore, the recent trend of EURUSD is also quite narrow and continues to be in a narrow range of the finishing market. It is expected that the market trend will continue until the emergence of major data and events, and the party is expected to break the narrow range of the situation.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0729 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0729 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0697 and 1.0642. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0729 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0776 and 1.0802.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The pound rose 0.58% to 1.21440 against the U.S. dollar yesterday, 9th February 2023, helped by a rebound in investor risk appetite that weighed on the dollar and hawkish comments from Bank of England officials.
Haskell, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, said he still sees the need for “strong action” if inflation persists.
Mizuho has analyzed, the Bank of England members of the rhetoric seem mildly hawkish, but also indicates that the UK Monetary Policy Committee is still concerned about the continued high inflation of further growth.
Therefore, the Bank of England in the interest rate hike is still difficult to stop, I’m afraid. This factor, it seems, can give some help to the pound.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2010-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2010-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.902 and 1.782. If GBP runs above the 1.2010-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2111 and 1.2222.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell on Thursday, 9th February 2023, as the market prepares for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with attention now turning to next week’s U.S. inflation data, which could become an important factor influencing the Fed’s monetary policy program considerations.
Spot gold fell 0.5%, after the release of the U.S. unemployment data, once rushed back to the highs.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1866-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1866-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1847 and 1832 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1866-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1880 and 1892.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Crude oil prices retreated Thursday as oil infrastructure appeared to be spared from severe damage caused by earthquakes in Turkey and parts of Syria, and as U.S. inventories increased and markets worried about a Federal Reserve rate hike.
The quake, which has killed more than 19,000 people, initially pushed oil prices higher on expectations that the disaster would severely damage pipelines and other infrastructure, leaving the global market short of crude supplies for an extended period of time.
A strong U.S. jobs report sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates to cool inflation, putting risky assets such as oil and stocks under pressure.
U.S. crude inventories rose to 455.1 million barrels last week, the highest level since June 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday, also pushing oil prices lower.
The EIA also said gasoline and distillate inventories also rose last week in this perversely warm winter. The prospect of stronger demand from China provided some support for oil prices.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices focus on the 76.89 – line today. If the oil price runs above the 76.89 -line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 78.14 and 79.28. If the oil price runs below the 76.89 -line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 76.00 and 72.04.
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