1. Forex Market Insight
The euro rose to 1.1032 against the dollar on Thursday, 2nd February 2023 after the ECB raised rates by 50 basis points as expected and Lagarde disagreed with the market interpretation that the rate hike cycle was nearing its end, before retreating and finally closing down 0.72% at 1.0909.
It is expected that the ECB may cut the rate hike to 25 basis points in March, but a stronger outlook and wage pressures could delay such a move and pose upside risks to rates.
(EUR/USD 1-hour Chart)
We focus on the 1.0871 line today. If the EUR runs below the 1.0871 line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0801 and 1.0729. If the strength of EUR rises over the 1.0871 line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0940 and 1.0986.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
On Thursday, 2nd February 2023, the Bank of England also raised interest rates by 50 basis points and abandoned its pledge to continue to raise rates “strongly” if necessary, and said inflation may have peaked.
The British pound closed down 1.20% against the dollar at 1.2223 on Thursday, and the outbreak of general strikes in the UK, which have hit the economy, has become a major negative factor for the pound.
(GBP/USD 1-hour Chart)
GBP is mainly focused on the 1.2270-line today. If GBP runs below the 1.2270-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2169 and 1.2106. If GBP runs above the 1.2270-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.2449 and 1.2651.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday, 2nd February 2023, as the dollar rallied and some investors took profits after gold climbed to a nine-month high on dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Spot gold fell 1.8 % to $1,915.79 an ounce, having earlier touched its highest since April 2022.
(Gold 1-hour Chart)
Gold pays attention to the 1921-line today. If the gold price runs below the 1921-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1909 and 1900 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1921-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1935 and 1942.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices closed lower Thursday, 2nd February 2023, as orders for industry-related factories in the U.S. slipped, with orders for industrial equipment and other machinery falling in December, although new orders for U.S. manufactured goods generally increased, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department.
Helping to stop oil from going lower is an EU ban on Russian refined products that will take effect Feb. 5 and could deal a blow to global supplies.
EU countries will seek an agreement on Friday on the EU executive committee’s proposal to set a price cap on Russian oil products, diplomats said, after the committee postponed a decision Wednesday because of disagreements among member states.
The EU executive committee proposed last week that the EU impose a price cap of $100 a barrel for Russian premium oil products such as diesel and $45 a barrel for discounted products such as fuel oil from Feb. 5.
(Crude Oil 1-hour Chart)
Oil prices focus on the 76.00 – line today. If the oil price runs above the 76.00 -line, then focus on the suppression strength of the two positions of 77.31 and 78.14. If the oil price runs below the 76.00 -line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 75.04 and 73.52.
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